2022-23 NFL Playoff Predictions (Part 1 - Wild Card)

Happy New Year! As a new year begins and we leave 2022 behind, it’s time for my annual NFL playoff predictions. This post will focus on the Wild Card games; future posts will predict the outcomes of the Divisional and Championship games, and eventually the Super Bowl.

Let’s go.

First round byes

#1 Kansas City Chiefs

#1 Philadelphia Eagles

AFC

#2 Buffalo Bills vs. #7 Miami Dolphins 

The Dolphins were responsible for the Bills suffering their first loss of the season back in Week 3. The Bills avenged the loss in Week 15, and now the trilogy will be complete. 

These are two teams going in opposite directions. The Bills have maintained their momentum and remain an easy Super Bowl favorite. The team is also highly motivated following the collapse of Damar Hamlin during the Bills-Bengals game earlier this month. Hamlin's remarkable recovery from a cardiac arrest has united the Bills as one and inspired them all to win for Hamlin. 

The Dolphins, meanwhile, have had a very turbulent season. They started by winning three in a row, then lost three in a row, then won five in a row, then lost five in a row, and finally won their regular season finale with a victory over the hapless Jets. The biggest problem for the Dolphins, by far, is their quarterback situation. Tua Tagovailoa has suffered several concussions and the Dolphins will have to rely on backups as he failed to clear concussion protocol. Murphy's Law in effect for the Dolphins.

Against a highly motivated Bills team, the Dolphins will quickly be caught stranded on dry land.

Prediction: Bills win, 35-14.

Result: Bills win, 34-31.

Comments after the game:

Quite possibly the most least convincing playoff win in a while. What started as a rout quickly became a game of mistakes for both teams, and every mistake looked like this:

***

#3 Cincinnati Bengals vs. #6 Baltimore Ravens

The Bengals haven't lost a game since Halloween (the Bills-Bengals game was declared a no contest). Super Bowl hangover? The Bengals are unaware of such an illness, but it is apparently quite rampant among the Rams. With Joe Burrow leading the way, the Bengals are a cannonball on fire, and they stand ready to face any opponent, even the Chiefs or the Bills.

The Ravens, however, have developed a frustrating habit of building up huge leads only to collapse in spectacular fashion. Worse, Lamar Jackson, the key to the Ravens offense, is injured. But even if the Ravens had Lamar in the line-up, can they really stop the red-hot Bengals? Doubtful.

Prediction: Bengals win, 28-10.

Result: Bengals win, 24-17.

Comments after the game:

Being on the wrong end of a record-setting fumble doomed the Ravens. We even have stunning highlight reel footage of the play:

***

#4 Jacksonville Jaguars vs. #5 Los Angeles Chargers

Before their bye week, the Jaguars were a hapless 3-7. They lost every game in October and entered the bye week with a double-digit loss to Chiefs. Evidently, the bye week was actually an interdimensional portal, because from that bye week stepped out a Jaguars squad that would proceed to win six of their final seven regular season games. The Jaguars have especially capitalized on a solid ground attack and defense capitalizing on crucial mistakes by their opponents. When the Jaguars offense stalls, the defense swoops in and saves the day. Trevor Lawrence hopes to make a statement in his playoff debut.

The Chargers have the stronger record and a quarterback, Justin Herbert, eager for his own playoff debut. That said, entering the playoffs after losing to the thoroughly undercooked Broncos is less than ideal. Worse, only one of the ten Chargers wins this season have been against a playoff team (the Dolphins in Week 14). It's up to Herbert and the passing game to tame the Jaguars.

This could be the closest match up of all the Wild Card games, and it is difficult to make a call on a winner. That said, there must be a winner; a tie playoff game would instantly crash the league like a Windows computer installing updates.

Prediction: Jaguars win, 24-21.

Result: Jaguars win, 31-30.

Comments after the game:

IT

WAS

TWENTY

SEVEN

TO

ZERO

Behold, the most ridiculous NFL playoff comeback in years. The Jaguars looked like this in the first half:

Four interceptions thrown by Trevor Lawrence. Down 27-0. An absolute, undisputed trainwreck. But in the second half, the Jaguars deployed the last card up their sleeves:

From there, the Jaguars took complete control. Four interceptions in the first half? No problem, trade it for four touchdown passes in the second half!

It was perhaps the most Chargers way the Chargers could end a Chargers game. In fact, we have some stunning footage of the Chargers during the second half:

A bit overcharged, one might say.

NFC

#2 San Francisco 49ers vs. #7 Seattle Seahawks

Look, the Seahawks are just happy to be here. Trading Russell Wilson away to the Denver Broncos was supposed to be the death knell for the Seahawks, an inevitable invitation to Tank Bowl. Instead, the Seahawks have fought their way to a playoff spot and secured a high position in the upcoming draft. The Broncos are enjoying a meal of undercooked ramen. 

Geno Smith became a hero in Seattle this season, taking no expectations and using them to shock the league. The journey was turbulent, especially in November and December, but all that matter is that the Seahawks are in the playoffs. Will they win against the most dangerous squad the 49ers have fielded in years? Highly unlikely. But if the Seahawks win? All bets are off. All of them.

Prediction: 49ers win, 24-14.

Result: 49ers win, 41-23.

Comments after the game: 

Disappointed? Yes.

Surprised? No.

***

#3 Minnesota Vikings vs. #6 New York Giants

Thirteen wins and a negative point differential. Behold, the Minnesota Vikings season. They either win by the narrowest of margins or lose in spectacular fashion. A thirteen win team in danger of going one and done?

The Giants are not much better. They had a strong start to the season, but crashed downhill after going 6-1 to finish the season at 9-7-1, winning only three of their last ten games. 

This only ends with either the Vikings winning by one score, or the Giants winning in a landslide. The latter seems more likely.

Prediction: Giants win, 28-7.

Result: Giants win, 31-24.

Comments after the game:

We have some highlight footage of the Vikings during the crucial 4th and 8:

Need eight yards to stay alive? No worries, three yards is clearly enough.

Or not.

***

#4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. #5 Dallas Cowboys

Welcome to another episode of The Tom Brady Show! I swear, this show was cancelled at the end of last season, but somehow...

As weak as the Buccaneers look, you simply cannot underestimate the dark magic of Tom Brady. Against all odds, Brady somehow keeps finding ways to win in crucial games. That said, Brady's dark magic has its limits if the defense can't keep up.

On the other side, you have the Cowboys, a NFC East powerhouse that nearly took the division if not for the last-minute win by the Eagles. The Cowboys have an explosive capable of unleashing forty-plus and even fifty-plus points the board. There is one problem, though. Dak Prescott has thrown a league-worst fifteen interceptions this season, the highest number he has thrown in his career. Mistakes the Cowboys cannot afford against a team with Tom Brady.

But even with the interception risk, the Cowboys should have enough firepower to end the Tom Brady Show. As long as the Cowboys remember how clocks work, that is...

Prediction: Cowboys win, 31-21.

Result: Cowboys win, 31-14.

Comments after the game:

We turn now to stunning highlight reel footage of the Cowboys kicker:

The Cowboys are quite fortunate the Buccaneers offense was a mess. A more dangerous team would be much less forgiving. Speaking of which, the 49ers await.