Happy New Year! As 2024 kicks off, it's time for my annual NFL playoff predictions. This post will focus on the Wild Card games. Future posts will predict the outcomes of the Divisional and Championship games, and eventually the Super Bowl.
Let's roll.
First round byes
#1 Baltimore Ravens
#1 San Francisco 49ers
AFC
#2 Buffalo Bills vs #7 Pittsburgh Steelers
For the first twelve weeks of the season, the Bills were in freefall, a far cry from their dominant regular season last year. It seemed as if the Super Bowl window had truly slammed shut. One bye week later, the Bills went on a five game winning streak and once again solidfied their place atop the AFC East. Josh Allen just needs to watch the turnovers. No room for mistakes like that in the playoffs.
As for the Steelers? They made the playoffs after a late surge, but at what cost? TJ Watt is out injured, and that alone brings the entire Steelers defense into question.
Like sand through the hourglass, the Bills will deliver unto us the Days of Our Steelers.
Prediction: Bills win, 42-14.
Result: Bills win, 31-17.
Comments after the game:
TONIGHT, ON DAYS OF OUR STEELERS
YINZERS SEEK THE NEAREST LIQUOR AS STEELERS AIN'T GAHNTA SUPAH BOWL
***
#3 Kansas City Chiefs vs #6 Miami Dolphins
The Chiefs seek to defend their Super Bowl title and will begin their playoff journey by sharing with the Dolphins the misfortune of playing in Canadian weather, eh? Maybe Patrick Mahomes will make a snowman or two – they could still catch better than some of his wide receivers.
Anyway, the Chiefs enter these playoffs with hopes of going to back-to-back Super Bowls for the second time since Super Bowls LIV and LV. The team remains a potent force, though since the bye week they have been 4-4, with three losses at Arrowhead Stadium. Mahomes is the key to all this, but his wide receivers need to avoid the dreaded butterfingers. Dropping crucial passes would be the fastest way to a shocking one-and-done.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, are all over the place. This is a team that unleashed seventy points on the Broncos but then coughed up forty-eight points and fifty-six points to the Bills and Ravens, respectively. Which version of the Dolphins will we receive on Wild Card weekend? The high-octane powerhouse capable of threatening long-standing NFL records, or the impotent failure that collapses under a gentle breeze? Judging by the injury list, it bodes ill for the Dolphins...
Prediction: Chiefs win, 28-20.
Result: Chiefs win, 27-7.
Comments after the game:
Dolphins do not thrive in Canadian weather, as expected.
***
#4 Houston Texans vs #5 Cleveland Browns
This will be the story of two standout quarterbacks – the Texans rookie and the Browns veteran. CJ Stroud and Joe Flacco.
The turnaround has been remarkable for the Texans, who went from an appalling 3-13-1 last season to a solid 10-7 and a division title this season. Their division title was won in part thanks to the implosion of the Jaguars. The Texans have a good record, but it is not world-shattering. Their performance has been on and off all season, and they have the dubious misfortune of being one of two teams to lose to the abysmal Carolina Panthers. Expectations are not high for the Texans, but the playoffs are the best time for chaos and plot twists.
As for the Browns? Week 13 was their pivotal moment. Joe Flacco, the man who led the Ravens to their second Super Bowl victory, now embarks on a redemption arc for the ages. The Browns have never made it to a Super Bowl – a Browns Super Bowl run would be the stuff of legends. Such a run would take the sting out of the appalling Watson contract. The Browns will regret that contract for years to come.
In this battle of rookie vs veteran, the veteran will prevail.
Prediction: Browns win, 21-17.
Result: Texans win, 45-14.
Comments after the game:
The stunning live footage above is a recap of the Cleveland Browns today. What a disaster! The Browns held their own for most of the first half but fell swiftly off the rails and disintegrated in such spectacular fashion that even Wile E. Coyote would be shocked. The two pick sixes (HOT POCKETS!) in the third quarter marked the brutal end of the Joe Flacco redemption arc. A truly lost season for the Browns. That Watson contract will follow them for years to come.
As for the Texans, the rookie Stroud emerges victorious and leads his team to the Divisional round!
~
NFC
#2 Dallas Cowboys vs #7 Green Bay Packers
The Dallas Cowboys are the Toronto Maple Leafs of the NFL. Glorious victories from decades past, nothing but eternal misery in the years following. And just as the Leafs struggled for years to escape the first round, the Cowboys simply cannot get past the second round. Fortunately, the Cowboys are in the Wild Card round, and they’ve had plenty more luck in this round. Even better for them, they are a perfect 8-0 at home this season, the only team to accomplish such a feat.
For the post-Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers, this season has been quite mixed. They managed to string together a couple of three game winning streaks, but otherwise have struggled to maintain consistency through the season. A road game against the best home team this season is unlikely to bring any good fortune to the cheeseheads.
Prediction: Cowboys win, 41-14.
Result: Packers win, 48-32.
Comments after the game:
We turn now to stunning highlight footage of the Packers offense against the Cowboys defense:
Even the Browns don't feel so bad after witnessing that calamity in Arlington. A complete debacle for the Cowboys. Perfect home record? High expectations? All for nothing. Perhaps one of the most embarrassing NFL playoff defeats ever, up there with 43-8, 28-3, you name it.
Even the Leafs with their endless playoff misery could never hope to match the horror unleashed upon the Cowboys today.
The Packers advance to the Divisional against their mortal playoff enemies: the San Francisco 49ers.
***
#3 Detroit Lions vs #6 Los Angeles Rams
“The Detroit Lions have won the division” is a sentence that has not been uttered in thirty years. Indeed, the Lions haven’t even won a playoff game since 1992. This is a Lions team that hungers for victory, but the path to that coveted Lombardi Trophy won’t be easy.
First, the Lions must face the dark horse of the NFC West – the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams haven’t drawn a whole lot of attention this season compared to other teams, but they’ve turned things around after a terrible 3-6 start. The Rams won seven of their last eight to secure a spot in the playoffs.
This will be a battle of who truly won the Stafford-Goff trade. It’s a matter of who wants it more.
Prediction: Lions win, 27-24.
Result: Lions win, 24-23.
Comments after the game:
A thriller for the history books. The Detroit Lions have won a playoff game for the first time since the 1991 season! It was a battle to the bitter end, with Stafford and Goff playing the games of their lives. But when the Rams entered the red zone, the Lions had a simple response:
The Rams settled for field goals when they needed touchdowns. And that is how the Lions advanced to the Divisional round for the first time in decades. Just think, when the Lions last won a playoff game, Windows 95 didn't exist, George H. W. Bush was President, and the Soviet Union had just collapsed. It's a been a long wait, but finally the Lions have achieved a playoff victory!
***
#4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs #5 Philadelphia Eagles
What in the holy hell has happened to the Philadelphia Eagles? A year ago, the Eagles were flying high - an absolute powerhouse that bowled the NFC en route to a Super Bowl appearance.
A year later, the Eagles began the season like an armored train, continuing their powerhouse style with a dominant 10-1 record. The Eagles swiftly followed up their 10-1 record by losing five of their final six games. The armored train jumped the tracks and collided with a train carrying a dozen natural gas tanks, triggering an explosion so powerful and so fiery it warmed the hearts of every Yinzer.
Something in that overtime thriller against the Bills unleashed endless torment for the Eagles. Five of their final six games ended in losses, including two brutal lopsided losses to the 49ers and Cowboys. Starting strong and ending with an implosion. In an instant, the Yinzers feel a terrible sense of déjà vu from 2020.
The Buccaneers aren't that much more impressive, either. They are merely the sole survivors of the eternal turdnado that is the NFC South. Worse, through until the end of November, the Bucs were a dismal 4-7 – hardly a playoff contender, and nowhere near the discussions for Super Bowl contention. Fortunately, with a few key wins over their division rivals, the Bucs sail into the playoffs. The Bucs may well dodge the iceberg for now, but they can still see it looming in the night.
Prediction: Buccaneers win, 30-20.
Result: Buccaneers win, 32-9.
Comments after the game:
Just look at that stunning highlight footage of the Eagles! Complete disaster from start to finish. From 10-1 to one and done. An appalling collapse of a hugely promising season. Super Bowl contenders in no universe.
The Buccaneers advance to the Divisional round to face the Lions!
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